A few years ago, a number of prominent Italian seismologists were subject to public opprobrium for having failed to predict an earthquake in the Italian town of LAquila despite a series of very clear early warning tremors. One has to wonder whether something similar is not happening today in European policymaking circles concerning the eurozone economy. Since despite an ever-increasing series of early warning signals that the eurozone might be heading soon for another round of its sovereign debt crisis, European policymakers are making little change to their policy approach to avert a major debt crisis that could lead to the eventual unraveling of the euro.
Among Europes most recent economic tremors has been the growing evidence that the German economic recovery has now run out of steam. Indeed, the most recent German economic data would suggest that the eurozones economic locomotive is now likely to have succumbed to a triple-dip economic recession in the third quarter of 2014. Should Germany in fact experience another recession, there is little prospect that the rest of Europe will manage to get itself out of its present economic funk since it is so dependent on a healthy Germany for its exports.